BAYESIAN ESTIMATES OF PROBABILITY OF INCIDENCES AND MORTALITIES OF SELECTED SERIOUS DISEASES

Abstract

Oncological diseases are really serious, because they are already occurring in childhood and their number is growing rapidly. This problem is very dangerous not only for the European population, but also for the population all over the world. The Bayesian theory of credibility, in particular the binomial/beta model, can be appropriate method to determine the probability of incidences and mortalities, especially in cases of insurance companies. The main aim of this article is to evaluate these probabilities using the binomial/beta model and compare the advantages of Bayesian estimates to the maximum likelihood estimations based on trachea, bronchus and lung cancers in the Czech Republic and Ukraine. Data are obtained from the databases of WHO and OECD.