Determination and Analysis of Actual IN05 Accuracy in Prediction of Creditworthiness

Abstract

The IN05 is considered as the most accurate financial model that predicts the creditworthiness of the company in a measurable way. IN05 was based on the financial data from 2004. It is an updated version of the model IN01 that showed different predictive ability in verifying in 2005, only 4 years after its creation. The situation in the manufacturing industry evolves, and with following 8 years the risk-free rates, interest rates, risk rates and sector averages have changed. The question is how much the ability of IN05 to predict economic value added (EVA) has changed in consequence of it. The paper aims to determine the current predictive power and the rate of return of the model IN05. The verification sample was made of financial data off 1,224 companies in the manufacturing sector. These companies showed no symptoms of financial instability in the form of execution, insolvency, liquidation or negative equity in 2013. The paper also presents solutions how to improve the predictive ability of IN05 and what areas and factors should be considered or eliminated in further improvement of this model.