Is last-mile delivery by autonomous robots a reality?: A multi-criteria decision-making approach for prioritization of autonomous vehicle modes

Abstract

The rapid growth of e-commerce and the resulting surge in last-mile deliveries have intensified urban congestion and logistical inefficiencies. Although recent studies highlight the potential of autonomous vehicles and delivery robots to improve delivery efficiency and sustainability, the practical realization of these systems remains limited. Most existing research focuses on technological development or simulation-based optimization, while comprehensive decision frameworks for prioritizing different autonomous delivery modes under real urban conditions are largely absent. Addressing this gap, this study investigates whether last-mile delivery by autonomous robots is a viable and implementable reality. We propose a multi-criteria decision-making framework that integrates the AROMAN and FullEx techniques to systematically evaluate and prioritize various autonomous vehicle modes for last-mile logistics. The proposed approach incorporates multiple evaluation dimensions – economic, technical, environmental, and operational, to support evidence-based decision-making. The methodology is demonstrated through a case study in the city of Novi Sad, which illustrates the framework's applicability in assessing the readiness and suitability of autonomous delivery solutions in a real-world urban context. Findings from the study contribute to both academic discourse and practical logistics management by offering a structured approach to determine when and how autonomous delivery systems can transition from concept to reality.