Using of stochastic simulation for modeling of company sales plan in MS Excel
Článekpeer-reviewedpublishedDatum publikování
2010
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Univerzita Pardubice
Abstrakt
Current real business processes are affected by a series of complex
interactive and interdependent elements with probabilistic and dynamic
characteristics. In this case it cannot be used mathematical methods with the exact
analytical solutions for analysis of business processes and one of the alternatives is
using of simulation. It is a very useful tool which can serve for modeling of the
complex processes and for carrying out experiments with them.
This article discusses using of stochastic simulation to generate a variable demand for
the products of certain virtual manufacturing and commercial company. Presented
simulation includes process from stochastic behavior of anonymous demand for
finished products of the company through the creation of binding orders and through
the distribution channels of finished goods (distribution warehouse, company shop,
direct customers). The results of stochastic simulation serve as a basis for subsequent
use of descriptive statistics and statistic inference methods. Own simulation was
performed by the Monte Carlo method and by using of widely available software MS
Excel.
Rozsah stran
p. 151-164
ISSN
1211 – 555X
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Zdrojový dokument
Scientific papers of the University of Pardubice. Series D, Faculty of Economics and Administration. 17 (2/2010)
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sales plan, confirmed and fejected orders, computer simulation, stochastic simulation