The Prediction of a Regional Economic Resilience in the Context of Employment Downturn and Upturn

Abstract

The term regional economic resilience has been widely used in recent years, especially in connection with assessment of an impact stemming from the 2008 economic crises. This paper presents an example of a possible quantification of the regional resilience. There are also two hypotheses evaluated in this article. The aim of this paper is to evaluate a relationship of potential determinants of resilience into two indicators of regional economic resilience and also to suggest two models for prediction of type of a region in terms of indicators of regional economic resilience. The analytical part of this paper is based on a dataset NUTS level 2 regions in connection with the economic crisis starting in 2008. Main research methods used are: correlation analysis and decision trees. The period of the recession phase and the first recovery phase were chosen separately for each region according to identification of turning points within business cycle analysis. The results show that human capital significantly influences the growth of employment in the recovery phase. Other results show that the sectorial structure and labour market are the next important factors which are useful for the classification of regions in terms of their resilience.