New fuzzy multiple criteria evaluation method as a support for investment decision making under uncertainty

Abstract

This article is motivated by real investment decision making for which uncertainty is so typical. The uncertainty can be represented by an unstable development of some characteristics of the investment instruments, or vague investor’s preferences. Moreover, the investment decision is usually made based on several criteria. To evaluate the investment instruments in a satisfactory manner, or namely to select suitable investment instrument(s), all mentioned aspects should be considered. For this purpose, a complex support tool is proposed in this paper. This fuzzy multiple criteria evaluation method uses triangular fuzzy numbers to express the element of uncertainty. It accepts a linguistically expressed importance of criteria which is very comfortable for a decision maker (investor). Linguistic terms are also transformed to the triangular fuzzy numbers based on the specified fuzzy scale. Using the concept of fuzzy sets (fuzzy numbers) provides a necessary quantification of the elements of uncertainty. The proposed method can select ‘the best’ alternative (i.e. investment instrument), to make a full ranking as well. All benefits of this fuzzy evaluation approach are illustratively demonstrated on a selected real investment decision making problem on the capital market with open unit trusts that are increasing in popularity within the Czech Republic.