Economic Determinants of Gasoline Prices: A Cointegration Analysis for Czechia

Abstract

The long-term relationships between the N95 (“Natural 95”) gasoline prices and economic factors, such as Brent crude oil prices, diesel fuel prices, and the CZK/USD exchange rate from 2014 to 2024, was investigated within this research. The Engle-Granger cointegration test was used to identify any stable long-term connections between these variables. Despite the comprehensive tests, facilitated by the Matlab software, no evidence of cointegration was consistently found, indicating that these economic factors do not significantly influence N95 gasoline prices over the long term. The findings suggest that, while the short-term fluctuations in these economic indicators may temporarily impact gasoline prices, they are not reliable predictors of the long-term trends.