Modelling of extreme losses in natural disasters

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to describe parametric curvefitting methods for modelling extreme historical losses of natural catastrophes in the world. Article summarizes relevant theoretical results Extreme value theory (EVT) and Excess over Threshold Method (EOT) and results of their application to the data about amounts of damages in world catastrophe events in time period 2010- 2014, published by Swiss Re studies Sigma. We aim to develop the models for extreme catastrophic losses by selecting a particular probability distributions through statistical analysis of empirical data with the best possible estimate of the upper tail area.