Využití Lee-Carterova modelu pro predikci střední délky života
ČlánekOtevřený přístuppeer-reviewedpublishedDatum publikování
2013
Autoři
Vedoucí práce
Oponent
Název časopisu
Název svazku
Vydavatel
Univerzita Pardubice
Abstrakt
The ageing of the population is a problem of many European countries including the Czech Republic. This problem is related to two main factors, the increase of life expectancy and the decline of birth rate. Here, attention is given to the first factor. For the purposes of this article, Lee-Carter model, which is one of the models used for modelling of mortality, was chosen. The article details the calculation method of the Lee-Carter method coefficients and then makes an estimate of their values for the real data from the mortality tables of the Czech Republic from the years 1950-2009. This makes it possible to
predict the development of specific mortality rates and consequently also the development
of life expectancy. A prediction of life expectancy for men and women in the Czech Republic
for the period 2010-2029 is also made in this article, 95% prediction interval for this period
is determined, and already known life expectancy values are compared with the predicted values.
Rozsah stran
p. 170-179
ISSN
1211-555X (Print)
1804-8048 (Online)
1804-8048 (Online)
Trvalý odkaz na tento záznam
Projekt
Zdrojový dokument
Scientific papers of the University of Pardubice.
Series D, Faculty of Economics and Administration.
26 (1/2013)
Vydavatelská verze
Přístup k e-verzi
open access
Název akce
ISBN
Studijní obor
Studijní program
Signatura tištěné verze
47940-26
Umístění tištěné verze
Univerzitní knihovna (studovna)
Přístup k tištěné verzi
Klíčová slova
mortality, mortality rate, life expectancy, Lee-Carter model, prediction